Image: Firefighters react to a former grassland fire in Wales.
The study carried out by the Carbon Insurance Company Artio combines drought projections with fire distribution modeling. It projects serious drought and fire conditions in late summer before the danger decreases in October.
It was published shortly after the publication of MET Office reports, in which it was found that in 2025 on course the hottest summer is Great Britain.
The BRECON BEACONS threaten the greatest potential losses, as the Artio study found that fires threatened more than 1,500 hectares. In addition to the publication of 129,000 tons of CO2 and the destruction of more than 70,000 tons of dry biomass, the damage could achieve 7.5 million GBP.
Dartmoor is also susceptible, with the recovery costs being estimated at 4.1 million GBP if more than 800 hectares are affected. Fires there could publish 77,000 tons of CO2.
The modeling of Artios identifies both in national parks and in the warning that a single spark from a grill, cigarette or a lightning strike could quickly cause moving blades at high risk conditions.
Last month, a big fire broke out at Arthur's seat in Edinburgh, which can be seen as “one of the largest forest fires” in the region. A commander of the Scottish Fire and Rescue Service Group said that human activity was almost quite certainty the source of the running fire.
Bilal Hussain, Managing Director of Artios, said: “These are not abstract risks, but immediate threats.
“Without decisive preventive measures, fires such as Brecon Beacons and Dartmoor could delete carbon binding in a few days and leave millions of restoration costs behind.”
Running fire risks on the natural markets
According to the study, nature conservation efforts and natural markets are also exposed to forest fire risks.
For example, the advantages of the Carbon Community glandwood initiative near the Brecon Beacons, which are to capture 15,000 tons of CO2, could be reversed by a large fire.
A 13 million pound -pound -pound project with 2,600 hectares of similar risks is exposed to Dartmoor.
A further recent analysis by Artio showed that longer drying montrades and reduced precipitation in June and July 2025 led to bags of extreme drought in Scotland.
In combination with ambient variables such as wind direction and topography, these conditions have increased the probability of forest fire ignition twice, while the area size that spreads every fire has grown by more than 30%.
Scotland is currently the leading hub in Great Britain for both technical and natural-based carbon projects, especially for Woodland and Torland. Projects under these codes are expected to prevent almost 30 million tons of CO2E emissions in the course of their lives.
When the crims develop, developers such as they design, monitor and maintain carbon projects are rethinking.
Hussain: “Proactive risk management is the only way to protect the carbon, the communities and ecosystems that support these landscapes.
“When we wait until the damage is caused, the costs – whether financially, socially or ecological – are far higher.”
Related article: How forest fires convert the Scotland carbon market