Imagine the famous coasts of Italy – sun-drenched sandy beaches stretching from the rugged cliffs of the Amalfi Coast to the blue bays of Sardinia. These beaches? More than just pretty postcards; They support a tourism economy and thereby support countless human lives. But get this, a new report says that paradise is in trouble. By 2050, Italy could lose nearly a fifth of its beaches due to rising sea levels and erosion – a “bath shock” that could really change the shape, economy and, you know, life of the country.
This worrying forecast comes from “Sunken Landscapes,” a major study recently published by the Italian Geographical Society (IGS). Using climate models, old data and a look at geography, the report paints a poor picture of Italy's 8,000 kilometers of coastline. According to the study, if we don't do something big, 40 to 45 percent of Italy's beaches could disappear by the end of the century, depending on emissions and our attempts to adapt.
Causes of the coastal crisis in Italy
At the heart of this erosion problem is climate change, particularly sea level rise. Warmer oceans are growing and encroaching on coastlines, and stronger storms bring flooding and carry away sand. “Italy's coasts are highly vulnerable to this because of their flat land and the large number of people who live there,” the report says, noting that even a small rise in sea level – about 0.3 to 1 meter by 2100 – could flood large areas.
But nature is not the only problem. People make it worse. Tourism, which brings in over 200 billion euros every year, has provided a major boost to fragile coastal areas. Hotels, resorts and boardwalks displace water, hinder the natural movement of sand and worsen erosion.
“Too much tourist stuff leads to a bad situation,” say the IGS authors. “Not only does it increase pressure on beaches, but it also leaves no room for nature to adapt.”
Additionally, defenses that are supposed to help cause problems. Dikes and barriers built to protect beaches often don't work. By preventing sand from moving along the coast, these things cause surrounding areas to lose sand, hastening their demise. “Short-term solutions become long-term problems,” the report warns, urging less “hard technology” and greener solutions.
Danger hotspots
Some coastlines are in worse condition than others, and people enjoy visiting these places. The northern Adriatic coast with its bustling cities is in big trouble, as is Puglia's Gargano Peninsula – a UNESCO World Heritage site known for its caves and beaches.
Further south, the beaches of the Maremma in Tuscany, the volcanic coast of Lazio near Rome and the Gulf of Naples in Campania are really at risk. Sardinia, a pretty island, is also affected: large areas around Cagliari and Oristano could be washed away, which would damage the island's tourism economy.
Even Italy's wetlands – tidal areas – are at risk. The Po Delta, with its rivers and swamps full of birds, as well as the Venice Lagoon show how risky it is. Here, rising waters aren't just taking away beaches; They blur the line between land and sea and obscure ancient sites and places in nature.
A cascade of consequences
The problems of these “sunken landscapes” go far beyond the loss of beaches. Socially, the report estimates that around 800,000 Italians – often in fishing villages – may have to move, which would lead to displacement and loss of culture. “These aren't just beaches; they're houses and history,” the study says.
The economic impact is, frankly, huge, one researcher told reporters. Imagine: about half of Italy's port infrastructure, so important for trade and even fishing, is unprotected. This could potentially paralyze logistics centers such as Genoa, Trieste and Bari. Then there is agriculture, whose future is also uncertain. It is estimated that around 10 percent of agricultural land nationwide is at risk of salinization, making the soil virtually unusable. Particularly at risk is the Po Delta, a place known for producing a quarter of Europe's Arborio rice. The salty irrigation water? The study points out that this could decimate crops, with obvious implications for food security and export earnings.
And when it comes to the environment, it's a similar story of cascading problems. These barrier beaches, which protect inland ecosystems from storms, are at risk of collapse. This, in turn, endangers wetlands, dune systems and marine nurseries. Biodiversity hotspots, such as the flamingo flocks of the Po Delta or the seagrass meadows, are at risk of extinction, only exacerbating Italy's broader vulnerability to climate change.
Ways to preserve
Despite the rather bleak picture, the IGS report doesn't just complain. In fact, it provides a course of action. The authors strongly suggest “renaturalization” as a key element of recovery: essentially restoring mangroves, dune systems and oyster reefs to act as natural defenses, buffers that can absorb wave energy and trap sediment. “Nature-based solutions,” they suggest, “can restore resilience in areas where concrete structures have proven inadequate,” pointing to some fairly successful examples in countries such as the Netherlands and Louisiana.
Then there is a strategic retreat, admittedly a difficult step but probably inevitable. This includes gradually reducing development in high-risk locations – perhaps even buying back land along the beach and relocating infrastructure – which could give ecosystems a little more time to recover. Combined with stricter zoning regulations to limit coastal development and the provision of incentives to promote ecotourism, projected losses could potentially be reduced by up to half.
The good news is that Italy isn't starting from scratch. Initiatives such as the European Union's Green Deal and funds such as the PNRR (National Recovery and Resilience Plan) provide significant resources for adapting to changing coastlines. However, the report emphasizes that time is perhaps the most precious thing they have. The authors conclude that “decisive, coordinated efforts made now have the potential to protect Italian coasts for future generations.”
As Italy grapples with these dramatic changes, the whole world is watching closely. Considering that coastlines face similar threats everywhere—from the sinking suburbs of Miami to the vanishing deltas of Bangladesh—Sunken Landscapes is in many ways a wake-up call. Will Italy lead the way on how to coexist with the sea, or will it instead be a cautionary tale? Unfortunately, the tides wait for no one.