Since climate change continues to interfere with ecosystems and human livelihood worldwide, Pakistan's challenge is always acute, especially for Hindu Kush Himalaya (HKH).
In Pakistan, climate change leads to more frequent and more intensive floods, droughts, glacier melt, temperature rise and a shift in seasonal precipitation patterns. The increasing evidence confirms that we not only have to do with frequent dangers, but are faced with systemic risks that change the socio -ecological and economic landscapes of the region.
This emerging situation does not require more reactive planning, but a serious investment in the foresight for future thinking. An intentional shift in observation, planning and action to risks in an increasingly insecure climate landscape.
Traditionally, the planning of the emergency reaction mainly based on historical trends and linear projections. This approach was successful in the administration of well -known risks, but is insufficient for the unknown risks in view of a changing climate. Past patterns are now less likely to predict future risks. The time, scaling and networking of climate risk are increasingly unpredictable through traditional approaches. This underlines the importance of an alternative approach that enables us to anticipate emerging challenges, prepare for several plausible futures and prioritize the resilience between systems.
Preduction is not a prediction; It is a process of systematic research into different plausible futures with the understanding of what could happen, but also what we want to do. It encourages political decision -makers, planners and communities to deviate from the reactive cycles and to deal with long -term thinking, scenario structure and adaptive strategies.
In the context of the Hindu -Kush -himalaya region of Pakistan, such an approach is particularly relevant. This region is exposed to pressure at the same time – such as population growth, underdeveloped infrastructure, environmental deterioration, gender -specific differences and weak public services. Agriculture, which is a fundamental livelihood for a large part of the population, is always susceptible to irregular rainfall, shorter growth seasons and the shift in life capability.
The water systems are heavily dependent on glacier melt and precipitation, both of which undergo significant changes. The change in the forest and the change in land use increase the effects of extreme weather, while basic services – health, education and hygiene – are still stretched and exposed to a disturbance.
If the planning is at short notice and reactive, these stressors tighten vulnerabilities. However, if we use foresight tools such as trend analysis, system assignment and scenario management, we can start asking more strategic questions. For example, how can changes in the melt on the glacier in the next 20 years to affect water security in HKH? What will the future of farmers look like when the monsoon becomes less reliable? What types of infrastructure investments would be adaptive in a number of climatic futures?
Foresight is not a technocratic instrument that needs to be used in isolation. It is an integrative, participatory process that brings various perspectives from various interest groups, including, but not limited to local government officials, young people, farmers, women and civil society. If these stakeholders create the scenario together and examine long -term strategies, the result is not just better planning, but a deeper possession of solutions. Such participation is of essential importance in regions such as HKH, in which top-down planning has historically overlooked the specific needs of the remote mountain communities.
Foresight requires institutions to face complexity. It acknowledges that climate risk does not exist in isolation; Instead, they overlap with governance, economic policy, land use planning and cultural practices. For example, a drought is not just a meteorological event. It is endangered by factors such as irrigation practices, harvest selection, access to loans and gender standards in connection with land ownership. Future -oriented thinking has to deal with this complexity rather than avoid it.
The good news is that there are opportunities to institutionalize the foresight within the Pakistani planning architecture. The recently developed national adaptation plan (NAP-2023) requires localized, intersectoral and future-oriented approaches to adaptation. The provincial governments have started to recognize the need for long -term climate councilors. What remains is to equip the local government/planning organizations with the instruments, data and capacities in order to use entity. This also requires the investment in climate and socio-economic data systems, the cooperation between scientific institutions and planning departments and the creation of a space for dialogues and creative thinking.
The financing of climate adjustments, regardless of whether they come from national budget budgets or international organizations, should not only support the infrastructure, but also the process that enables communities and institutions to think and act in a new way.
In order to initiate this process, Islamabad Islamabad, in cooperation with the ICIMOD Nepal, leads a project in cooperation with climatic and socio -economic risks in subnational scales to deal with the Icimod Nepal.
Foresight is not a luxury or a thought experiment. It is a necessity at a time when the future is no longer an expansion of the past. In Pakistani mountain regions in which new surprises have with it every season, this may be the most strategic investment that we can make.
The choice is clear: we can either continue to react to crises or start planning a number of possible future with the people who are directly affected by these crises. By taking over predictions, we can count this selection not only for today, but for generations.
The author is a research assistant at the Institute for Sustainable Development Policy Institute (SDPI) in Islamabad.